Natural Asset Continuity · candidate research kernel

A wildfire does not make every carbon tonne disappear.

Viridis combines pre- and post-fire satellite evidence with authorized inventory, field, laboratory, registry, and contract evidence to separate physical loss, carbon that remains onsite, externally recognized treatment, and uncertainty that still needs a human decision.

This is not credit issuance, certification, insurance adjustment, registry treatment, or a promise that a burned asset retains eligible credits. Full loss and insufficient evidence are valid outcomes.
Ecological-economic decision chain

One ledger. Three decisions kept separate.

The controlled-beta Wildfire Carbon Ledger evaluates physical carbon first. It can attach an external registry decision and then calculate an indicative value from supplied commercial terms, but it never turns its own physical estimate into a credit claim.

1

Physical carbon

Pre/post live, root, deadwood, litter, soil, and PyC pools.

2

External treatment

Registry or contract quantity as reported by its accountable owner.

3

Indicative value

External quantity × supplied terms, less declared obligations and costs.

Machine-checked foundation

A proved threshold, applied through evidence.

Six Carbon Continuity theorems are kernel-checked in Lean 4 with zero proof holes. The primary result proves the exact condition for a positive, nondecreasing living-and-durable carbon portfolio inside the stated two-pool model.

Read the reproducible paper and Lean proof
r × p ≥ (1 − a) × (1 − d)

The protected workbench evaluates this threshold only from supplied, source-referenced retention and transfer coefficients. It records the theorem identity, published DOI, Lean source hash, declared uncertainty, evidence floor, input hash, and evaluation hash in the downloadable decision receipt.

The proof establishes the mathematics within the model. It does not prove field calibration, insurance eligibility, a premium or reserve, credit validity, or an underwriting or registry decision.

From orbit

Remote evidence first

  • Project boundary, fire date, and paired satellite provenance
  • Pre/post vegetation change plus time-ordered fire-energy observations when available
  • Separate pre- and post-fire carbon pools with source-labelled uncertainty
  • Independent fuel-consumption and combustion-emissions cross-checks
On the ground

Only the missing evidence

  • Customer inventories or qualified measurements for live biomass, roots, deadwood, litter, and soil
  • Laboratory method and chain of custody for wildfire-derived pyrogenic carbon
  • Evidence for erosion, offsite export, decay, salvage, and other boundary adjustments
  • The governing methodology, reversal terms, commercial terms, and accountable decision owner
The workflow

Remote-first. Local-trusted. Fail-closed.

1

Name the decision

One burned project, one accountable decision owner, one deadline.

2

Screen the boundary

Viridis retrieves paired imagery, records provenance, and maps change.

3

Confirm the gaps

A local forester or qualified partner collects only authorized, decision-material evidence.

4

Review the statement

Facts, estimates, unknowns, and external registry decisions remain visibly separate.

Specialized engagement

Start with a fixed-fee remote screen.

Bring an authorized project boundary, fire date, and real portfolio or reversal decision. The remote screen is $1,500 paid upfront and credited toward a $7,500 hybrid diagnostic when local evidence is both feasible and decision-material.

Final scope, data handling, timeline, field or laboratory costs, and acceptance criteria are agreed in writing. Customer-authorized external costs are separate.

Best fit
  • A wildfire-exposed forest-carbon project
  • A decision due within 90 days
  • Authority to share the boundary and governing terms
  • A decision owner willing to review the result
Check project eligibility

What Viridis delivers

A versioned Verified Decision Chain containing a Remaining Carbon Asset Screen, source-labelled observations, pre/post pool accounting, fire-energy and combustion cross-checks when supported, a Lean-backed Carbon Continuity threshold result when evidence-referenced coefficients are supplied, explicit uncertainty, non-compensable evidence holds, proof and reproducibility hashes, and the questions that remain for the registry, insurer, contract, or portfolio decision owner.

Viridis does not infer measurements that are absent, ask local partners to certify credits, or treat natural wildfire charcoal as engineered biochar without characterization.